suddenly replace human workers through abrupt capability leaps. While Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei recently predicted that AI could surpass almost all humans at almost everything shortly after 2027, new findings from MIT suggest a different trajectory. The study indicates that while AI progress is rapid, it occurs as a smooth, predictable rise rather than sudden, unpredictable surges that would catch the workforce off guard.
The research team, led by senior author Neil Thompson and lead researcher Matthias Mertens, examined thousands of real-world tasks across the US economy. They found that AI capabilities are rising steadily rather than in crashing waves. This distinction is critical for economic forecasting. If improvements were like crashing waves, workers and policymakers might be blindsided by a sudden shift. However, the data shows a gradual upward trend, meaning advances are generally visible in advance, allowing for better preparation.
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