The Quantum Tortoise and the Classical Hare: When Will Quantum Computers Outpace Classical Ones and When Will They Be Left Behind?

Sukwoong Choi; William S. Moses; Neil Thompson

June 19, 2025
Quantum computing promises transformational gains for solving some problems, but little to none for others. We introduce a framework—cast as a race between quantum and classical computers—to determine which problems benefit. While classical machines operate faster, quantum algorithms can sometimes be more efficient; which advantage dominates determines where quantum wins. Our analysis suggests many small-to-moderate problems common in business will not benefit from quantum computing, whereas larger problems or those with exceptionally large algorithmic gains may see advantages.